Premier League
The Premier League is the most unpredictable of all leagues. New promotion teams are taking down champions, a mid-table side are picking up a 1-0 victory from a ground they shouldn’t be able to win at and the favourites are dropping points on a wet Tuesday. It is this unpredictability that makes it loved by many and good predictions can’t just be done from gut feeling.

Few leagues have such a competitive landscape. The squad strength, tactics and resources are distributed more fairly than most European leagues meaning that the difference between the 6th and 14th placed teams can often be much closer than the table portrays. The football is also very low scoring, meaning that often a match that was dominated by one team can be decided by a single deflection, red card or goalkeeping mistake. This means that no matter how good your model is it will never be perfect. The aim is not to get it right every time but to make better decisions than a coin toss in a consistent manner across many matches.

1. Recent Form: When looking at a teams recent form, be sure to look at the last 5 results. Three wins against teams near the bottom of the league won’t mean as much as a draw on the road against a top four side. Look at how they played in their games.

2. Home Advantage: Whilst home advantage has definitely reduced since the start of the pandemic, it still does play a part. They will have the comfort of playing at home, plus the energy of the crowd. There is also no tiredness from travelling. Some grounds are definitely harder to play at.

3. Expected Goals (xG): This shows how well a team is creating chances and conceding chances. If a team is winning but have a low xG then they are often over performing and are likely to have a downturn. If a team is losing but have a high xG then they are often just unlucky and are likely to turn their fortunes around.

4. Injuries/Suspensions: Missing a key striker, first choice goalkeeper or defensive stalwart can make a big difference to a game. Be sure to always check team news.